AI Prediction Tracker: Our Football Pick Record

By English Matchday Editorial Team · Updated 1 November 2026

This AI prediction tracker shows how every English Matchday pick has actually performed. We log one pick for each match before kick-off, settle it against the final score and keep the result on this page, whether it was right or wrong. Below the tracker, we explain how the record works, how to read it and what it cannot tell you.

How does the AI prediction tracker work?

Our picks come from an automated statistical model, not from a person’s hunch. For each upcoming match, the model rates both sides and chooses the single most likely result: a home win, a draw or an away win. That pick is saved with the date and time before the match starts, and it cannot be changed afterwards.

When the match finishes, the tracker compares the pick with the result. A match that ends the way we said counts as correct, and anything else counts as missed. As a result, the record is a plain count of hits and misses, with nothing hidden and nothing adjusted.

What counts as a correct prediction?

A pick is correct when the result after 90 minutes matches it. If we pick a home win and the home side wins, that is a hit. If we pick a draw and the game ends level, that is also a hit, even though draws are harder to call than wins.

Extra time and penalties do not count, because our picks are about the 90-minute result. For example, a Champions League tie that finishes level after 90 minutes is a draw for the tracker, whatever happens next. Likewise, cup games outside the three competitions listed here are not tracked.

Why do we show a home-win comparison?

A percentage on its own can mislead. In football, the home side wins more often than the away side, so a model could look decent just by backing the home team every time. To keep ourselves honest, the tracker shows how often a home win would have been right over the same matches.

Therefore, the number to watch is the gap between our strike rate and that comparison. If our picks are right more often than a simple home-win rule, the model is adding something. If they are not, the tracker will show that too, and we will say so.

How should I read the confidence bands?

Each pick also has a lean: a strong lean, a clear lean or a close call. A strong lean means the model saw a big gap between the two sides, while a close call means the match looked finely balanced. We do not show the underlying percentages, because they suggest more precision than a football model really has.

In principle, strong leans should be right more often than close calls. The “How sure were we?” box shows whether that has happened so far. Meanwhile, a close call that goes wrong is not a failure of the system, since a balanced match can end either way.

What are the limits of the tracker?

The record covers a short period, so it will move a lot at first. A few results in a row can swing a percentage by several points, and we flag this on the page while the sample is small. Over time, the numbers settle and become more meaningful.

Moreover, no model beats football’s randomness every week. Injuries, red cards and a single lucky deflection can undo a good pick. For that reason, treat the tracker as a running score, and use our predictions as one input alongside your own knowledge of the teams.

Who is the prediction tracker for?

It is for any fan who wants to know whether a set of predictions deserves attention. Instead of asking you to trust a claim, the tracker lets you check the record yourself, filter it by league and look at the misses as closely as the hits.

It is also a tool for us. Because every result is public, we can see where the model is weak, for example in draws or in a particular league, and improve it. As a result, the page does two jobs at once: it keeps us honest, and it gives you the evidence to decide how much weight our picks deserve.

Where can I see the picks before kick-off?

Every pick appears on its predictions page before the match, with a short reason. You can read the Premier League predictions, the Championship predictions and the Champions League predictions, or see all of today’s picks on football predictions today.

Our guide to how accurate football predictions are explains what a realistic strike rate looks like, which helps you judge the numbers above fairly.

How does the tracker connect to the rest of English Matchday?

The picks use the same match data that powers the Premier League table, the Championship table and the Champions League table. For recent momentum, the Premier League form table and the Championship form table show the same results from a different angle.

We explain how we work in our editorial policy, and you can send us a correction through our about page. In short, if a result looks wrong, we want to hear about it.

What do people ask about the AI prediction tracker?

This page is editorial coverage with no betting advice. If you gamble, you must be 18 or over; see our responsible gambling page for help and support.